{ "platform": "Anthony Charts", "document": "Composite Index Definitions", "version": "1.0", "published": "2026-02-24", "author": "Anthony Migliazzo", "status": "LOCKED", "note": "Weights and scale definitions in this file are pre-committed. No silent revisions. All changes must be logged in the revision_record below with date, change, and rationale.", "principles": { "composite_independence": "World On Edge and World Goodness are independently constructed. Goodness ≠ 100 − Edge. They draw from distinct input pools with separately justified weights.", "normalization": "All inputs normalized to 0–100 before weighting is applied.", "revision_discipline": "Weights may only change with a logged revision entry. Retroactive adjustment to match narrative is prohibited.", "descriptive_not_prescriptive": "Anthony Charts measures directional change. It does not forecast outcomes or prescribe action." }, "composites": { "world_on_edge": { "name": "World On Edge Index", "version": "1.0", "locked": "2026-02-24", "range": "0–100", "direction": "Higher = more global tension", "current_score": 78, "current_score_date": "2026-02", "inputs": [ { "name": "GPR Index", "source": "Caldara & Iacoviello — geopolitical risk language across 10 major global newspapers", "weight": 0.35, "normalization": "GPR raw value normalized against 0–200 historical range" }, { "name": "ACLED Active Conflict Event Count", "source": "Armed Conflict Location & Event Data Project", "weight": 0.25, "normalization": "Active conflict zones normalized against 0–80 historical range" }, { "name": "Gallup Global Worry & Stress Survey", "source": "Gallup World Poll annual negative experience index", "weight": 0.15, "normalization": "Worry index normalized 0–100 as published" }, { "name": "Conflict Deaths YTD", "source": "ACLED cross-referenced with UCDP Uppsala — direct battle fatalities only", "weight": 0.15, "normalization": "YTD deaths normalized against 50,000 annual threshold (extreme)" }, { "name": "Species Threat Index (inverted)", "source": "IUCN Red List — threatened species as % of total assessed, inverted as stress signal", "weight": 0.10, "normalization": "Threatened % normalized against 0–50% scale" } ], "weight_total": 1.00, "arc_scale": "0 = no geopolitical stress / 100 = maximum stress", "update_cadence": "Monthly", "experimental": false }, "world_goodness": { "name": "World Goodness Index", "version": "1.0", "locked": "2026-02-24", "range": "0–100", "direction": "Higher = stronger positive global momentum", "current_score": 54, "current_score_date": "2026-02", "inputs": [ { "name": "OCHA Humanitarian Aid Volume", "source": "UN Office for the Coordination of Humanitarian Affairs — total aid commitments", "weight": 0.20, "normalization": "Aid volume normalized against 0–30B USD annual range" }, { "name": "World Bank Extreme Poverty Rate (inverted)", "source": "World Bank — % living below $2.15/day PPP, inverted (lower poverty = higher goodness)", "weight": 0.20, "normalization": "Poverty rate inverted: goodness = 100 − normalized poverty %" }, { "name": "Scientific Breakthrough Count", "source": "Our World in Data — peer-reviewed major scientific milestone tracking", "weight": 0.15, "normalization": "Annual breakthrough count normalized against 0–50 range" }, { "name": "UN Treaty Signatures Per Quarter", "source": "UN Treaty Collection database — multilateral treaty ratifications", "weight": 0.15, "normalization": "Quarterly signatures normalized against 0–30 historical range" }, { "name": "Social Mobility Index", "source": "World Bank Global Social Mobility Index — 10 pillars including health, education, fair wages", "weight": 0.15, "normalization": "Published 0–100 scale used directly" }, { "name": "Conservation Coverage Growth Rate", "source": "Protected Planet (UNEP-WCMC + IUCN) — % of Earth's land under formal protection", "weight": 0.15, "normalization": "Coverage % normalized as share of 30x30 target (30% by 2030)" } ], "weight_total": 1.00, "arc_scale": "0 = no positive momentum / 100 = maximum positive momentum", "update_cadence": "Monthly", "experimental": false }, "calm_window": { "name": "Calm Window Probability", "version": "1.0", "locked": "2026-02-24", "range": "0–100", "direction": "Higher = greater probability of directional tension easing", "current_score": 28, "current_score_date": "2026-02", "disclaimer": "Probabilistic directional easing estimate — not predictive certainty. This is not a prediction of peace.", "inputs": [ { "name": "GPR 3-Month Slope", "source": "Caldara & Iacoviello GPR Index — 3-month directional momentum", "weight": 0.40, "normalization": "Rising slope scores lower (less calm probable); falling slope scores higher" }, { "name": "ACLED Conflict Event Trend", "source": "ACLED — month-over-month change in active conflict event count", "weight": 0.40, "normalization": "Growing event counts score lower; declining counts score higher" }, { "name": "Volatility Compression Signal", "source": "GPR standard deviation — sharp downward momentum = structural easing signal", "weight": 0.20, "normalization": "High compression (sharp fall) scores higher; noise-level change scores lower" } ], "weight_total": 1.00, "arc_scale": "0 = near-zero easing probability / 100 = high easing probability", "update_cadence": "Monthly", "experimental": true }, "information_integrity": { "name": "Information Integrity Index", "version": "1.0", "locked": "2026-02-24", "range": "0–100", "direction": "Higher = more verified information environment", "current_score": 61.4, "current_score_date": "2026-02", "inputs": [ { "name": "IFCN Claim Accuracy Rate", "source": "International Fact-Checking Network — verified fact-checker claim accuracy", "weight": 0.50, "normalization": "Accuracy % used directly as 0–100" }, { "name": "RSF Press Freedom Index (inverted)", "source": "Reporters Without Borders — global press freedom score, inverted", "weight": 0.30, "normalization": "RSF score inverted: higher freedom = higher integrity signal" }, { "name": "NewsGuard Credibility Score Average", "source": "NewsGuard — average credibility rating across major news sources", "weight": 0.20, "normalization": "Published 0–100 score used directly" } ], "weight_total": 1.00, "arc_scale": "0 = total misinformation environment / 100 = fully verified environment", "update_cadence": "Monthly", "experimental": true }, "global_trade_stress": { "name": "Global Trade Stress Index", "version": "1.0", "locked": "2026-02-24", "range": "0–100", "direction": "Higher = more trade system stress", "current_score": 62, "current_score_date": "2026-02", "reference_points": { "covid_peak": 88, "elevated_threshold": 60, "crisis_threshold": 80 }, "inputs": [ { "name": "Freightos Baltic Index", "source": "Freightos — global container freight rate benchmark", "weight": 0.35, "normalization": "Freight rates normalized against 0–15,000 USD/FEU historical range" }, { "name": "Global Manufacturing PMI (inverted)", "source": "S&P Global Manufacturing PMI composite — inverted (contraction = higher stress)", "weight": 0.35, "normalization": "PMI inverted: below 50 = contraction = higher stress score" }, { "name": "World Bank Trade Volume Momentum", "source": "World Bank — global trade volume index month-over-month momentum", "weight": 0.30, "normalization": "Declining momentum scores higher stress; growth scores lower" } ], "weight_total": 1.00, "arc_scale": "0 = no trade stress / 100 = crisis-level stress", "update_cadence": "Monthly", "experimental": true } }, "primary_meter_scales": { "global_temp_anomaly": { "unit": "°C above 1850–1900 baseline", "arc_min": 0, "arc_max": 2.0, "arc_basis": "Paris Agreement 0–2°C risk corridor", "source": "Copernicus C3S + NOAA GISSTEMP", "cadence": "Monthly" }, "sea_level_rise": { "unit": "mm cumulative since January 1993", "arc_min": 0, "arc_max": 200, "arc_basis": "0–200mm pre-declared scale", "source": "NASA JPL Satellite Altimetry + CSIRO", "cadence": "Monthly" }, "arctic_sea_ice": { "unit": "million km² extent", "arc_basis": "Percentile within 1981–2010 climatological seasonal range for same calendar day", "source": "NSIDC Sea Ice Index", "cadence": "Daily" }, "co2_concentration": { "unit": "ppm atmospheric CO₂", "arc_min": 280, "arc_max": 500, "arc_basis": "280ppm pre-industrial baseline to 500ppm extreme risk scenario", "source": "NOAA Mauna Loa Observatory + Scripps Institution", "cadence": "Weekly" }, "exoplanet_count": { "unit": "cumulative confirmed exoplanets", "arc_basis": "Pace toward 10,000-planet milestone by 2030 at current discovery rates", "source": "NASA Exoplanet Archive", "cadence": "Weekly" }, "neo_watch": { "unit": "close approaches within 0.05 AU this week", "arc_basis": "Normalized against historical weekly average", "source": "NASA CNEOS + JPL Sentry", "cadence": "Daily", "note": "Awareness meter — not a threat alarm. Impact threats tracked separately." }, "technosignature_watch": { "unit": "active unresolved candidate signals", "arc_basis": "Candidates as share of 12-month rolling average", "source": "Breakthrough Listen + SETI Institute", "cadence": "As reported", "note": "Scientific search tracker — not a claimed detection meter." }, "solar_activity": { "unit": "NOAA G-scale (G0–G5)", "arc_min": 0, "arc_max": 5, "arc_basis": "G-scale normalized 0–100", "source": "NOAA SWPC + ESA Space Weather", "cadence": "Daily" }, "wealth_inequality": { "unit": "Global Gini coefficient", "arc_min": 0.4, "arc_max": 0.9, "arc_basis": "0.4 = low inequality / 0.9 = extreme inequality", "source": "World Inequality Database (WID.world)", "cadence": "Annual" }, "social_mobility": { "unit": "World Bank GSMI score 0–100", "arc_min": 0, "arc_max": 100, "arc_basis": "Published GSMI scale used directly", "source": "World Bank Global Social Mobility Index", "cadence": "Annual" }, "conflict_deaths": { "unit": "YTD battle deaths", "arc_min": 0, "arc_max": 50000, "arc_basis": "50,000 annual deaths = extreme threshold", "source": "ACLED + UCDP Uppsala", "cadence": "Monthly", "note": "Direct battle fatalities only. Indirect deaths from disease or displacement excluded." }, "peacekeeping_reach": { "unit": "total UN peacekeeping personnel deployed", "arc_min": 0, "arc_max": 120000, "arc_basis": "120,000 = 2015 peak deployment", "source": "UN DPPA monthly fact sheets", "cadence": "Monthly" }, "species_threat": { "unit": "species classified VU/EN/CR on IUCN Red List", "arc_basis": "Threatened as % of total assessed, normalized against 50% threshold", "source": "IUCN Red List", "cadence": "Quarterly" }, "conservation_coverage": { "unit": "% of Earth's land under formal protection", "arc_basis": "% of 30x30 target (30% by 2030, agreed COP15 2022) achieved", "source": "Protected Planet (UNEP-WCMC + IUCN)", "cadence": "Annual" } }, "revision_record": [ { "version": "1.0", "date": "2026-02-24", "type": "Initial lock", "changes": [ "Platform launched with 17 meters across 4 pillars", "World On Edge expanded from 3 to 5 inputs — conflict deaths and species threat added, GPR weight reduced from 0.50 to 0.35", "World Goodness expanded from 4 to 6 inputs — social mobility and conservation coverage added", "Composite Independence principle established: Edge and Goodness are not inverses", "Calm Window, Information Integrity, and Trade Stress designated Experimental", "All arc scales pre-declared and locked" ], "rationale": "Initial publication. All weights set by editorial judgment at launch." } ] }